We Will Not See $100 per barrel Oil Again

With oil trading around $48 per barrel, biofuels become relatively expensive but not for long.  Research and development efforts will slow.  However, all of this is short-term.  Oil prices will rise, but unlikely to see over $100 per barrel.  Why?  Because the global movement supporting clean and green energy is accelerating.  As an equity and financial analyst, I like Mosaic Theory, a concept taught in both graduate school and the CFA (chartered financial analyst).  It is making sense of bits of disparate data provided across multiple sectors and then developing a theory.  I have taken several on-line courses in the last year for different universities and from different parts of the world.  The most interesting part of these on-line courses is the global forum that you are required to participate in.  You quickly find out how people from numerous countries and numerous socio-economic groups view the world.  I also read voraciously, all kinds of subjects (typical of an analyst).  The common dialogue from these forums and readings was climate change.  Duh! you might say.  But I was  struggling to find the source of the this global climate change/renewable energy dialogue and how pervasive this message was.

Taking a recently offered online course on Cousera.org, entitled "The Age of Sustainable Development," I believe that I found that source.  It began in 2000, when Kofi Annan, then Secretary-General of the United Nations, asked Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University to head up a project called the Millennial Project.  The project is similar to that of the Club of Rome, a global think-tank that wrote the Limits to Growth.  That study looked at the global population growth and its impact on resources and development.

The Millennial Project was similar in that the propose was to revisit the population issue as well as looking at disparity between developed and developing countries.  This entailed a massive amount of planning, organization and data collection.  Most of the data collection was undertaken by groups affiliated with the UN.  The UN then distributed the data far and wide and many of the reports became operating plans for governments to implement in their countries.  It was disseminated so far that people from all over the world calculated their carbon footprints and could compare and contrast how they got to their carbon footprint with everyone.  This was eye-opening to me, especially when I could compare and contrast my carbon footprint with someone else in a small town of Africa.  This was made available from a leapfrog in technology of solar panels to generate electricity and cellular telecommunications to log into the internet to take the course.  WOW!

With the constant and relentless drumbeat of media (from the multiple sources mentioned above), the recently reached climate accord in Lima, Peru last month and the Pope speaking out on climate change in the Philippines, I believe that we are about to seriously jump-start the clean energy movement.  Wind will continue to grow but at a slower rate in the developed countries for all kinds of reasons, but solar will accelerate, especially if storage technology is developed (Elon Musk is doing that as we speak with the construction of the world's largest rechargeable battery factory).  Solar energy's growth has be hampered by the elimination of subsidies and its intermittent energy supply problem.  The energy storage technology that Elon Musk needed for his Tesla cars, will soon be available on an affordable basis to connect his solar panels to his car, through his energy storage system.  This will allow for the seamless transition of electricity between the solar panel to house and battery during the day, the battery to car during the night, and potentially car to grid and residential battery storage to grid during peak power demand.  What a solution and what an impact.

This technology will impact the utility sector in ways we are yet to see and feel.  It will then impact oil's monopoly on transportation fuel.  During this last 10 years of high oil price, hundreds of millions of people globally have transitioned to smaller, more efficient cars, which clearly impacted the demand side of the equation.  Increased oil production from shales impacted the supply side of the equation.  With supply exceeding demand, oil prices fell.  This will slow exploration and development of oil and cause prices to rise but not to point of $100, assuming no major refinery outages.

Product Review - Belkin WeMo LED Lighting Kit - 2 out of 5 Stars

I recently reviewed Belkin's WeMo Insight Switch (January 2, 2015).  As I mentioned in the Insight Switch review, I am a huge fan of LED light bulbs.  In a typical household, 30% of the electrical bill is lighting.  I replaced approximately 30% of my incandescent light bulbs with LED light bulbs.  I first replaced those in the most trafficked areas of the house - mudroom, living room, media room, bathrooms and kitchen and places where my sons leave lights on.  In a few months, I have realized a return on that investment.  So, this time I decided to add extra LED lights more as a theft deterrent than energy savings.  Because the price of theses bulbs - $30 per bulb, with its wifi link were not the average price of my replacement bulbs - $7.28 per bulb, I don't expect the quick pay backs as on the other bulbs.

Product review: Belkin WeMo LED Starting Kit and One Extra Bulb
Cost: $122 for three LED light bulbs and a wifi link plus shipping and tax
Rating: 2 out of 5
Pros:

• Apple app is attractive and functions well, as it is the same software operating the Insight Switches.  The apps can operate the light bulbs from the smartphone or tablet from anywhere using the existing wifi network and mobile internet.
• The LED has a soft lighting and is easy to read by.  It is equivalent to a 60-watt incandescent bulb (800 lumens) and only consumes 10 watts of energy.  The company says that the life expectancy is 23 years based on 3 hours of daily usage.  
• The app has a section that calculates the estimated monthly cost and cost today, average watts running through the device and time that the device was on.  This is nice, but I would like to see an additional line or two, showing me the calculated savings.
• The Link is supposed to be able to support up to 50 WeMo Smart LED light bulbs.  Each bulb can be individually programmed or as a group.
• The Link is about the same size as the Insight Switch, making it also possible to use the bottom socket.  

Cons:

• Android app is less reliable than the Apple IOS app.  It is slow and does not have the exact features that the Apple app has.
• Apps only have a vertical orientation.  I would like to see a landscape orientation as well.
• There is no computer app/browser interface, which, typically for most products are more robust and allow for easier and more customization.
• Loading rules for automatic turning on and off, is not simple and straight forward, especially when setting "rules" for more than one device, which is located on a separate tab.  I would rather see the "rules" associated with the edit function of each device.  A firmware upgrade could correct all of these problems.
• While the company says that the LED bulbs are supposed to give off less heat than traditional light bulbs.  It is cooler, but much, much hotter than my Cree LED light bulbs.
• So far, I have experienced a large number of "not detected" error messages despite the wifi working (though in all fairness, we have had problems with CenturyLink).  I have also experienced "the device won't appear until it becomes active again."  These error messages are annoying and firmware upgrades are needed here.

Conclusions:

I like the idea of controlling the outlets and some lights (for security reasons), but the product needs some firmware upgrades.   I am not sure that I will be able to generate a savings return in excess of its costs (I will write a follow up review, once I have some data).  This device is more about convenience, some savings, and security peace of mind (lights going on and off as if someone were home), than it is about a fast pay back.  I would give this product more stars, if the firmwares could eliminate the "not detected" messages.

The Government's Idea of Saving on Energy is through Your Stomach

The Associated Press wrote an article today regarding a dietary change for the US - less beef.  According to the article, a panel that advises the Agriculture Department is ready to recommend that the public be told what foods are better for you and the environment.  This recommendation, should it become law, cuts across all kinds of sectors - agriculture, food processing, food distribution, fertilizer, energy, chemical, trucking, healthcare, to name a few.  It also cuts across livelihoods - ranching, farming (grains for the cattle), processing, distribution, healthcare to name a few.  It also takes away some freedom of choice.

Hopefully, there will be careful deliberation on this as the impact would literally and figuratively alter the landscape of the US.  The panel would push for more fruits, vegetables, nuts, whole grains and other plant-based foods - at the expense of meat.  The irony here is that fruits, vegetables and grains require water and for us much of the fruits and vegetables And the panel has already been discussing this in public meetings, and "indicating that its recommendations, expected early this year, may address the environment.  In a study by the journal proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published last year, said that compared to other animal proteins (pork and chicken), beef produces more heat-trapping gases per calorie, puts out more water-polluting nitrogen, takes more water for irrigation and uses more land.  My son took a bi-disciplinary course at Case Western this past semester that looked at the food industry and sustainability.  The course was espousing the same view points as the panel.  I just completed a sustainable development course from Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University that also espoused the same view points.  I also took an alternative energy course from the University of California at San Diego and in the biofuels section, they addressed the energy role in raising cattle (methane production) and grains (ethanol).  The point here is that academia is very much interested in advancing similar concepts to students as the advisory panel is to the Agriculture Department.  

Our food growing, food processing and delivery system has been constructed over decades and has delivered food not only for the US, but also the world.  So, how are we to implement this change?  In those above mentioned courses and I suspect the National Academy of Sciences, the concept of small farming is being pushed on a global basis.  By pushing this concept and financially aiding developing countries, they would begin to feed themselves, create jobs and strengthen their economies.  We could then down-size our agribusinesses to incorporate small farming as well.  The end result is much less fertilizer being used (energy intensive and polluting), less water could be used if drought resistance seeds are used (mentioned in the courses above), and jobs may increase as more are employed at the small farming end, with a multiplier effect.

But, this really needs to be thoroughly thought through.  Too much is at stake.  While healthy is good, it is more expensive and perishable (this adds to expense).  Logistical systems, rail and truck, are already being stretched, adding time-sensitive fruits and vegetables could burden the system.  Now, that is food for thought.

Product Review - Belkin WeMo Insight Switches - 2 out of 5 stars

I will be reviewing several products periodically and posting them here.  I am a huge fan of LED light bulbs and will have a much more substantial review on costs savings later on.  But suffice it to say, I have realized a return on the investment in less than 12 months.  I decided to try Belkin's WeMo Insight Switches to see if I could generate costs savings as well on devices plugged into electrical outlets.  I wanted to experiment on two outlets that have computers (must be without an attached backup power system) or multi-media equipment attached to them.  Lighting and things plugged into your outlets (ex dishwasher, washer, dryer, water heater, air conditioner and refrigerator) typically account for approximately 30% of the average homeowners electrical bill.  So, trying to control the lights and devices plugged into electrical outlets can realize quick pay backs on the investments.

Product review: Belkin WeMo Insight Switch
Cost: $102 for two switches with shipping and tax
Rating: 2 out of 5
Pros:

• Apple app is attractive and functions well.  
• The switch is reasonable in size and has nice manual on/off and reset buttons.  The size is small enough that if you plug it into the top socket that you can plug something in the bottom socket (switchable via wall switch).  But if you plug the device into the bottom socket, then you block the use of the top socket.
• There is a small readout that lets you know that the wifi is being recognized when the device is on.
• The app has a section that calculates the estimated monthly cost and cost today, average watts running through the device and time that the device was on.  This is nice, but I would like to see an additional line or two, showing me the calculated savings.

Cons:

• Android app is less reliable.  It is slow and does not have the exact features that the Apple app has.
• Apps only have a vertical orientation.  I would like to see a landscape orientation as well.
• There is no computer app/browser interface, which typically for most products are more robust and allow for easier and more customization.
• Loading rules for automatic turning on and off, is not simple and straight forward, especially when setting "rules" for more than one device, which is located on a separate tab.  I would rather see the "rules" associated with the edit function of each device.  A firmware upgrade could correct all of these problems.

Conclusion:

I like the idea of controlling the outlets and some lights (for security reasons), but the product needs some firmware upgrades.   I am not sure that I will be able to generate a savings return in excess of its costs (I will write a follow up review, once I have some data).  This device is more about convenience, some savings, and security peace of mind (lights going on and off as if someone were home), than it is about a fast pay back.