Thursday, March 24, 2011

Part 2 - What if we follow Germany's lead on nuclear power


This is part two of the first blog about The Energy Chart.   We left you with looking at the 38.3 quadrillion btus of demand by the Electric Power sector.  The 104 currently permitted nuclear power reactors in the US (see below) produce 22% of the total electrical demand.  Chancellor Angela Murkel of Germany has issued a decree to suspend for three months all nuclear plants built before 1980.  Germany has 17 nuclear power reactors, which generate approximately 25% of its electrical needs.  According to www.world-nuclear.org, six of those plants went into commercial operation prior to 1980, or 30%.  If these six are to be suspended, Germany will reduce electrical power generation by 7.5%.   Where will Germany make up this loss of electrical power generation?  


 
Source: EIA

I reviewed the data from the EIA’s website of all 104 nuclear power plants in the US, of which 31 states have nuclear power plants.  I then took Chancellor Merkel’s suspension criteria and applied it to the US nuclear fleet.  The result is that 43% of our nuclear fleet is older than 1980.  That represents 43,504 net MW(e) or 53 of the 104 nuclear power plants in 21 different states.  If we were to suspend or idle those plants put into commercial operation prior to 1980, we would idle 9.5% of the total US electrical generating capability.  There was another interesting fact that emerged from the data.  Every reactor built before 1980 was constructed and put into commercial production in less than 10 years and on average 6 years.  There is a direct correlation to size of the reactor and length of time from beginning construction to commercial production.  Those reactors built after 1980 took much longer to construct as they were bigger (maxing out at 1.3 net MW(e)).  If we use the criteria of beginning construction versus the commercial operation, then all 104 started construction before 1980.

Where will we make up the difference in electrical generation?  

More next blog.

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