Solar Energy - the leap frog technology for global sustainable development

In my continuing research on reducing the carbon footprint and alternative energy; it is clear to me that solar energy is about to explode.  In a recent article (I read as much as possible and adhere to a thought process of mosaic theory – piecing together information from disparate sources and making sense of it), it is projected that grid parity, the point at which an alternative energy source, ie., photovoltaic solar panels, can generate electricity at a levelized cost that is less than or equal to the price of purchasing power from the electric grid or local utility, will occur within the next 18 months in 26 states.  That is when solar energy takes off as a viable and affordable electrical energy source.  There are many exciting developments occurring around the solar industry, such as Solar City providing financing to put solar panels on residential homes, Quantum Materials manufacturing quantum dot solar cells, and again Solar City looking into the GigaFactory, a manufacturing plant to supply lithium-ion batteries to the Tesla electric automobile and the missing link of solar energy – the battery.  These are many companies involved in revolutionizing energy production in the US and the World.  One such company is Solar City, which has the abilty to provide a global sustainable development solution.  Think about it, it can provide low cost financing or subsidized (by issuing bonds – see website, to raise capital to finance solar power installation), batteries would free communities from the expensive distribution model with large energy (and capital expenditure) producing power plants and provide power for both the home and a vehicle (which does not have to be the Roadster, but something more like the Smart Car).  With the leap frogging of cellular communications, the developing countries could see true and rapid growth.  This could be a transformational period in economics and sustainable development.

Here is how this scenario will unfold:

• Grid parity is reached in many states within 18 months or so.
• People begin to make the investment in solar panels – whether leasing the panels from the likes of Solar City or outright purchasing them – this could be explosive nationally.
• LED lighting will reduce electricity demand more than expected (more on this in the next blog).
• The local utilities are required to repurchase excess electricity.
• High-CO2 coal-fired power plants will continue to close and may accelerate due to less power being consumed from the grid.
• The key is storage.  Elon Musk of Solar City and Tesla announced that he will construct a “giga-factory” in Nevada to produce lithium-ion batteries for the Tesla autos and Solar City photovoltaic solar panel systems.  The Giga factory begins to produce lithium-ion batteries in large quantities; thereby driving storage costs down significantly and igniting another round of solar panel demand, this time globally. I envision that this battery will be interchangeable with the house PV solar panel system and the Tesla car.  The power produced by the house could be stored in the house battery storage system and discharged at night to recharge the Tesla battery for the next day.  Power would then begin to be produced by the panels the next day and consumed internally and stored.  If there was more power consumed in the early evening, for instance for cooking, then the car battery would discharge DC current into the home batteries and to the appliances.  The micro grid of the home may need to be interconnected to other micro-grids in the event of lowered energy production or disruption.  The utility may become the back-up system.
• Utilities will report lower earning due to reduced demand (yesterday, Xcel Energy announced that 3^rd quarter profit rose slightly but were lower than analysts’ expectations due to a milder quarter than expected– the misses will become more frequent).
• The grid will morph from a utility distribution model to a hybrid – utility distribution and micro grids.  A micro grid is a linkage of homes/small commericial/light manufacturing entities producing renewable energy, through geothermal heating/cooling, solar photovoltaic/thermal and energy saving appliances.  Currently, this model is being developed and analyzed by University of California at San Diego.
• The model gets adopted globally.

This is not fantasy, this is moving behind the scenes very rapidly.  The next five years could be spectacular, especially when it has been agreed to by the academic and scientific communities to call this the Anthropogenic Era.